Swine flu may be 'drastic' in some countries - IMF

Israeli doctor Michael Averbukh poses for the media at the entrance to the first aid room at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv April 30, 2009. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economic impact from the swine flu outbreak could be "quite drastic" in some countries, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Thursday.Addressing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said it was clear that tourism volumes will be affected.He indicated it was too early to say for sure what the impact of the outbreak will be on the global economy, which is already in a deep recession."Is it something that is potentially of the scale of the current crisis we have? The information that we have at this stage is it is a relatively minor (economic ) event," Blanchard added.Mexico urged people to stay home for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy and its central bank warned the outbreak could deepen the nation's recession, hurting an economy that has already shrunk by as much as 8 percent from the previous year in the first quarter.Meanwhile, global markets were taking the flu news in their stride.The new flu virus has killed up to 176 people in Mexico and infections have been reported in the United States, Latin America and Europe.If the outbreak becomes severe, however, triggering a clampdown on trade, the cost to the global economy could climb into the trillions of dollars, previous World Bank studies have estimated.The studies also showed that the severity of a pandemic depends on infection and fatality rates, duration and how prepares families and businesses are.Economic disruptions could come from high absenteeism, as people may be asked to stay at home, or may choose to do so to care for sick relatives or for fear of being exposed.